About That Fox News Poll

There have been many pundits, news writers, and bloggers recently who have cited a specific Fox News poll while giving us the "reasons" that they think Governor Palin should stay out of the 2012 presidential race. Considering that the poll has a Fox News label on it, we as conservatives are supposed to believe that it is entirely credible. There are some problems with that, and "credible" isn't a word I would use in association with the numbers they came up with. Here's why...

The section of the poll that is being touted by the media and by the governor's detractors states:

Should Palin Run?

All in all, most voters -- 74 percent -- think Palin should stay on the sidelines in 2012. Just 20 percent think she should run for president.

The groups most likely to support Palin running are white evangelical Christians (30 percent) and Tea Party members (28 percent). Still, majorities of those groups do not think she should run (62 percent and 66 percent respectively). In addition, 72 percent of conservatives, 71 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents think Palin should stay out.

Women (77 percent) are a bit more likely than men (71 percent) to say Palin should sit this one out.

Just among women, Republicans (26 percent) are more likely than independents (24 percent) and Democrats (15 percent) to think Palin should run.

What these people leave out of their reports is perhaps the most interesting fact about the poll altogether. It states (emphasis):

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from August 29 to August 31. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Now, just who is Shaw & Company Research? Alexander Burns from Politico writes:

The Shaw in Shaw & Company is Daron Shaw, a University of Texas political science professor and veteran of several GOP campaigns, whose name has been in the news a bit lately.

That's because Shaw is one of the starring players in Sasha Issenberg's e-book, "Rick Perry and His Eggheads: Inside the Brainiest Political Operation in America," which details a groundbreaking set of experiments that Shaw and three other academics conducted inside Perry's 2006 reelection campaign.

The Perry campaign allowed the so-called eggheads to run tests on "anything [they] could figure out how to randomize, from lawn signs to television ads," Issenberg writes, and they assembled a provocative set of findings on which kinds of campaign tactics really work.

Fast forward five years and Perry is running for president and Shaw is one of the lead pollsters for the most influential cable network, by far, among GOP primary voters.

I've read the 30 page book that Burns is talking about, so don't be distracted by the fact that he writes for Politico. What he wrote is accurate, you can see for yourself here.

Now, Shaw maintains that there wasn't a conflict of interest in doing the poll for Fox because Perry didn't pay him and the other "eggheads" for their services. Even though he and the others were very much a part of Perry's political team, he claims that " we're stupid, we never entered into any business relationship with Perry." The book states that Shaw was "moonlighting" for the Perry campaign. I gather that one would have to go through Perry's campaign disclosure forms to find out for sure. Given the huge numbers for Perry in the poll and the fact that Team Perry is determined to keep Governor Palin out of the race, something isn't right with Fox using Shaw's agency to gather numbers for a conservative audience.

There is also the fact that the Fox poll numbers are very different from a poll that CNN conducted just this last July. Ian noted at the time:

55% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents want Governor Palin to run.

That is a huge difference between the Shaw and Anderson Robbins (Fox poll) numbers. When you see that big of a shift in that short amount of time, you know something isn't right. The fact that Fox used somebody that the Perry people trust and allowed close access to, should send off alarms to more than just the writers at Politico.

They Say Governor Palin is "Polarizing" in Order to Marginalize Her

In an effort to frame the narrative, the word "polarizing" has been used by Governor Palin's detractors, political foes, and people who just repeat what they hear, at an ever increasing level since the midterm elections. Wikipedia describes political polarization as such (emphasis mine):

In politics, polarization (or polarisation) is the process by which the public opinion divides and goes to the extremes. It can also refer to when the extreme factions of a political party gain dominance in a party. In either case moderate voices often lose power and influence as a consequence.

The word is being applied to Governor Palin in an effort to marginalize her by people who don't really have her best interests in mind. I've read it more than once from so-called "moderate Republicans," whose main purpose in life seems to be convincing the left that they're not all those nasty things leftists calls conservatives. I have a newsflash for those "moderates"... Leftists still hate you, and I have no idea why you care.

Moderation has nothing to do with kissing the behind of the extreme left. You can be civil with them. Work with them when possible, but when their worldview approaches the territory where their actions (based in good nature or not) hurt the nation, you have to put your foot down. That is not "extreme," that's commonsense for anyone who cares about this nation. If you look at the national debt, health care, economic uncertainty, and a host of other fine examples the Obama administration has provided for us, you can see that my comments pertaining to their worldview are not hyperbole.

Then there is the irony of the Lamestream media placing to word "polarizing" in the headlines of stories they write about Governor Palin. They do this for the same reason you see left-wing pundits touting the "polarizing" meme. It's politics, plain and simple. Marginalizing Governor Palin in a way to make people who consider themselves "middle of the road" want to stay away from her. They want those people to ignore what she has to say, because she's not selling the lefts agenda. It's a play for the middle - the independents. Instead of telling those 'middle of he road' people why they think leftist views are correct, they just tear down their ideological opposition.

How is it possible that this former governor, the subject of the second entry on Google when searching the word "polarizing" (Pelosi in number one), had an 80% approval rating in Alaska, nineteen months after being sworn in? How did someone so 'extreme' manage to gain such high approval numbers and keep them for so long? Is Alaska full of 'extremists?' ... Ah, no it's not. To me, this shows that there is a disconnect between a perception of how "polarizing" Governor Palin is and how non-polarizing a public servant she actually was.

Sheya posted an excellent piece in August titled "The Polarization of Sarah Palin," where he wrote extensively on false perceptions versus reality. You can read that piece here, I highly recommend it.

More proof of the disconnect between perception and reality was the Rasmussen poll that came out back in September that said, "Voters feel closer to Palin than Obama, 52/40." It states:

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Likely U.S. Voters say their own views are closer to Sarah Palin’s than they are to President Obama’s, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Just 40% say their views are closer to the president’s than to those of the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate.

Among the Political Class, however, 68% say their views are more like Obama’s, while 63% of Mainstream voters describe their views as more like Palin’s.

That poll was taken to determine the amount of people who agreed with Governor Palin versus Obama on the issues as opposed to perceptions of each political figure. Clearly the American people are more polarized by government takeover of industry and medicine than say... asking the federal government to live up to it's end of the contract it has with the people. That being the Constitution. You see, commonsense, Constitutional Conservatism really isn't that controversial.

It appears that Governor Palin agrees. When Mary Hart from ET interviewed her last month, the governor spoke about being labeled "polarizing." She said:

"That is a bit perplexing because I think, what is polarizing or extreme about believing, politically speaking, in the United States Constitution? And our Declaration of Independence, and all those things that it stands for? And what our founding mothers and fathers in this country meant for America to keep building upon? Those are the things that I believe in. What's extreme about that? How is that polarizing? So I'm still perplexed by that, that characterization of the polarization."

It's clear that Governor Palin rallies Conservatives, and it is well documented that the far left fear and loathe her. However, I find no reason given the governor's standing on the issues and constitutional beliefs, that people in the middle can't also rally behind her. What matter of substance would keep those people away?

The "polarizing" meme is just another weapon the left uses to try to damage Governor Palin. Hopefully the American people can start to see that the people giving this label to her have a motive to do so. In other words, consider the source. As far as the people who mindlessly repeat the meme go... I can only ask that they look at the issues, the records before you speak. Then you tell me who are the real "polarizing" figures on America's political stage today. Do you call Barack Obama polarizing? If not, why not because his record easily proves that he is.

Fiorina Has the Momentum

News today that Carly Fiorina is up in the polls and is currently riding the tide of momentum. Reuters reports:

Democratic candidates are clinging to narrow leads over their Republican rivals in two key California races with less than three weeks to go until November 2 elections, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Friday.

Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer’s lead over Republican Carly Fiorina among likely voters in California is only one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, down from a four-point advantage early this month.

Neil Stevens over at Redstate weighs in:

It’s no wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, feared by Barack Obama, is ready to spend another $1.25 million educating Americans about the dismal failure that Babs Boxer’s 28 years in DC have been. Since Carly Fiorina started her ad offensive and kept piling on, the polls have been moving.

The television barrage has come just at the right time. While a month ago it looked like Boxer was threatening to take a double digit lead and make the race far less competitive, the newest poll has it a virtual tie.

Yes, the poll by Ipsos for Reuters gives Boxer that tiny 46-45 (MoE 4) lead, which is as close to a coin flip as you can get without managing to register an exact tie in the poll. 55/45 by the math, you can probably find ordinary quarters on the street that are biased that much.

The ads are working. Carly seems to be using the same strategy she did last time: Keep it close, keep it close, and then once it’s almost over, just start hitting, and hitting, and hitting, until the opponent just can’t keep up.

No Ma’am Babs has more money than Carly’s primary opponents did, so she’s not quite going down as easily, but the polling trend is undeniable. Five polls in a row at 4 points or less. I just might have to call it a five seat battleground instead of four, adding CA to my previous list of WA, NV, WV, and IL. The race is getting that close.

This is happening. This is real. We can beat Barbara Boxer.

¡Si Se Puede!

What better time then now? If you would like to get Barbara Boxer out of the Senate, and replace her with a commonsense Conservative, please visit Carly Fiorina's campaign website and do what you can, today.